Sunday, December 16, 2007

Tea Party '07

$9.5 million, with about 75% confidence. That's my prediction at 1:50 AM.
I arrived at this number by comparing today's donation rate profile to November 5th -- they're quite close -- and assuming a linear relationship. (The 75% is a rough estimate of rate profile difference).

Update at 1:40PM, 4:30PM:
Donations didn't pick up as much as I had expected them at to 9AM, and the donation rate profiles are now fairly different (probably part because it's a Sunday, and because more people wanted to donate at the very start). The new estimate is going to be $6-7.5 million, with a fairly low confidence of of 60% confidence of 75%, though I'm 90% certain we'll raise over 5.5 million)

26 comments:

Dan said...

This will be a remarkable day.. that's over twice as much as Nov 5th..

Part of me disbelieves that we'll be able to raise that much, but I'm not the optimistic type. According to what I've seen on your graphs, it looks entirely possible.

Clinton holds the current record right? I don't remember the amount off the top of my head.. I wonder if we'll set an all-time off/on record for 24hrs.. that'll be huge news.

Stiles said...

Here's the thing, you know we can match the Nov. 5th numbers, but how much more can we go? 9.5M would be double. I'd love to see it but as much as it would make me happy, I tend to think we will be closer to 7M.

Barnabas said...

We are making history today.

thanks for the great stats

Anonymous said...

ALL TIME 1 DAY RECORD CAMPAIGN DONATIONS GOES TO.....

PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

DR. R O N P A U L


FREEDOM!

Spread the Message far and wider..

For Tyranny has met its Demise!!!

Peace and Firearms to Keep it!

Adam said...

We have a pool going at the Jack Blood forum just for fun. Choose within a 100 thou what you think the final total will be and you win!
The prize is the exhilaration of watching history in the making.

http://www.jackbloodforum.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=94252#94252

haroon said...

I dont trust the projection. I hope ron paul gets as much as he can.. But double is a stretch... Im just hoping he beats 5th November so he can get more press.

PS - thanks for making the site.

Ron said...

I hope the projections have factored in those of us who maxed out our allowable contributions on Nov 5th.

BrianD said...

Only 1.9% maxed out on November 5th. We have 5000 first-time donors this week. I think that off-sets those who maxed out.

-Brian

Bryan said...

I think 9.5 million is a little on the overly optimistic side, don't you think? Its definitely going to beat November 5th, but a gain of over 200% is a bit much to get people's hopes up for.

Addola said...

I expect 6-7 millions today. The most money raised in one day was by Jon Kerry only AFTER he won the nomination of the democrat party, he raised $5.7-$5.8. Ron Paul is still running for the primaries and raising a lot of money!

Voters turnout in the general election is 40-50% of eligible voters and less than 15% in the primaries, Ron Paul supporter are more likely to vote for him than any other candidate. He can pull it off in Iowa or at least end at a shocking second (with respect to mainstream media's opinion)

Colin Colenso said...

At 1.50am I was thinking a similar total.

But it seems clear now that a higher percentage of people decided to contribute early on to try to kick start this thing this time.

At 12 we seem to be on track for about 6 million online donations, but the donation rate curve is not acting like it did on Nov 5th. It might continue to climb. Beyond 7mill would surprise me a lot though at this stage of the stats being shown.

Something clever here said...

Not a school night. Easier for people to stay up late.

Jonathon said...

6 million should be the goal, IMO. That is still a lot of money! I don't know why on earth they made a goal of $10 million. I think reaching a smaller goal like 6 is much better since it would be the most ever raised and beating the goal would make media support easier.

racketmensch said...

If you could somehow factor out special interest donations (pacs, unions, corporations etc.), I'm sure Nov. 5 would be the record. The more it makes Hannity squeal, the better

Tom said...

It's gonna be around 6 mil. I looked at the trend line. The trend line stays very even as it did on Nov 5th. It is pointing right at 6 mil. Unless the sloop will steepen, we are looking at 6.

Bryan said...

6 million is definitely a possible goal at this point in time, especially if the contributions per hour rate stays around or about $325,000/hour.

Lee said...

Dude, please turn off the widget code thats hitting the official site. Its slowing the official site down and those of us watching graphs are forced to contribute to the bandwidth problems.

Jeff said...

Kill the widget on http://paulcash.slact.net/

it is using too much bandwidth - people are having a hard time donating. We need to conserve the bandwidth!!!

Chris said...

why aren't the charts on the main page updating past 2:00 P.M?

Leo said...

..they are...

HDR said...

Man, donations seem to be slowing alot

Dan said...

Doesn't look like it has slowed down since 10am.. pretty consistent rate.

We're about to hit $5mil in a moment!

Anonymous said...

We have to hit 5.8 million to beat Kerry's record. It's going to be close.

Steve Z said...

Unless I missed something (which is likely), wasn't there just a boost in the quarterly total from 17.1 to 17.5 or so million that wasn't added to the daily total? Any idea what's up?

HDR said...

Nice, it ended at 5.9 mil, with offline totals could the full total be past 6 mil?

Anonymous said...

I read somewhere that offline totals were around 500k as of 5pm PST.

if that's true, CONGRATULATIONS! we passed Hillary's "record"