Friday, December 21, 2007


I'll be away until the 26th -- If something gets screwed up, it won't get fixed until then. So hopefully nothing breaks.

Monday, December 17, 2007

Tea Party 2007 - A Day for the record books

The campaign's still crunching numbers, but it looks like they've raised $6 million.
I've put up an animated summary of the day here.

...$6 million!!!

12/21/07: number updated to the official press release total

Sunday, December 16, 2007

The Flash widget

I've received a few requests to take down the flash widget to conserver RP08's bandwidth.
Thing is, it's only 100KB that their server can spit out with no preprocessing. What's more, once a browser downloaded it, it'll stay in the cache, so it mostly won't get requested again.
Additionally, the widget checks a URL with some data on the RP server every 30 seconds or so. This data feed has an average response time of 150 ms, and isn't in any way measurably affecting the campaign servers.

What's slowing down, in my estimation, is the direct visits and the processing involved with donations and credit card processing.

...but if someone from asks me to take it off, it'll be gone immediately.

Tea Party '07

$9.5 million, with about 75% confidence. That's my prediction at 1:50 AM.
I arrived at this number by comparing today's donation rate profile to November 5th -- they're quite close -- and assuming a linear relationship. (The 75% is a rough estimate of rate profile difference).

Update at 1:40PM, 4:30PM:
Donations didn't pick up as much as I had expected them at to 9AM, and the donation rate profiles are now fairly different (probably part because it's a Sunday, and because more people wanted to donate at the very start). The new estimate is going to be $6-7.5 million, with a fairly low confidence of of 60% confidence of 75%, though I'm 90% certain we'll raise over 5.5 million)

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Status update

I've reworked the averaging algorithm today -- it's more accurate overall, but it's more jittery. I'll fix this when I have time, as right now I'm a bit swamped with finals.

With that said, here's to 10 million!